Weekly Review Strategy: Week 30

Open/pending positions of last week

NZD/USD

This pair will be analyzed in detail. After closing a short position in profit on July 13 because of the strong pullback another position has been opened on July 16 when the pair picked up the downtrend again this week. If you are interested in the trades click here.

From a longer term perspective the pair succeeded on May 29 to close and break through the lows of February and March around 0,7170. Since then it remains an interesting pair for taking short positions.

The NZD found the downtrend at the end of April and has since May known only currency scores of 3 or lower. The USD is clearly in an uptrend and is having almost all the time a currency score of 6 or higher since August 2014. Only during the pullback last May it had several times a score lower than 6 and succeeded to correct itself fast. The pair is clearly in a downtrend and it is gaining momentum.

  • As shown in the Currency Score chart in my previous article of this weekend the USD has a score of 7 and the NZD a score of 1.
  • In the current Ranking and Rating list of this weekend the pair has a rank of 4. This list is used as additional information besides the Currency score and the Technical Analysis charts.
  • Besides the general information mentioned the outlook in the TA charts also makes this an attractive opportunity.

Ranking and rating list Week 30 Rank: 4 Rating: – – –

Weekly Currency score: Down Based on the currency score the pair looked interesting since the beginning of May. The USD is a strong currency from a longer term perspective and after the pullback in May it found the uptrend again. The NZD is a weak currency from a longer term perspective and is getting a lot weaker in the last weeks. This offers an opportunity. With currently a Score difference of 6 and the USD being better classified it is an interesting pair for taking positions in the coming week.

NZD/USD Weekly Currency Score: Week 30

Monthly chart: Dow

  • On the monthly (context) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all of the the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
  • Since the monthly chart is used to get the context how that pair is developing for the long term the indicators are looking fine because they are showing strength in the current downtrend.

Weekly chart: Down

  • On the weekly (decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.

Daily chart: Down

  • On the daily (timing) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area and started again gaining strength after the short pullback in the precious days.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.

Total outlook: Down

NZD/USD Ichimoku Weekly Chart

NZD/USD Weekly chart

AUD/CHF

This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Week 28 where the pair was tipped for going short. A position has been opened for this pair. However, last Thursday and Friday the pullback was very strong and the stop loss got hit.

The AUD is one of weakest currencies with a currency score of 3 after the CAD(2) and the NZD(1). The CHF is one of the stronger currencies with a score of 6 after the USD(7) and the GBP(8). The pair has a currency score difference of 3 and remains interesting for taking short positions when there comes an opportunity around.

  • On the weekly (decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
  • In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in negative area but the histogram is showing consolidation.
  • The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.

Ranking and rating list Week 30 Rank: 14 Rating: –

Total outlook: Down

GBP/CAD

This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Week 29 where the pair was tipped for going long. A position was opened on July 14. The pair is clearly in an uptrend and it is gaining momentum. From a longer term perspective it broke through a previous significant top of February 24 at 1,9554. The pair was already in an uptrend before breaking through this level but after the break it boosted up even further with last week gaining an astonishing 599 pips compared to the close of the previous week. When trading with the CAD I also check the Weekly Crude Oil chart and this one is again picking up the downtrend after the pullback that started in February and March. The GBP is an strong currency and has a currency score of 8 at the moment. The CAD is an average currency and is one of the weakest currencies at the moment with a score of 2. With a score difference of 6 and the GBP being better classified it remains an interesting pair.

  • On the weekly (decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going long.
  • In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
  • The MACD is in positive area and the histogram is showing strong increase of momentum.
  • The Parabolic SAR is long and showing the preferred pattern of higher stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.

Ranking and rating list Week 30 Rank: 2 Rating: + + +

Total outlook: Up

If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don’t forget to check my weekly forex “Ranking and Rating list” and the “Currency Score”.

DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for ‘Forex Trading Journal’ purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments.

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