USD/CHF: Bottom Set Above 0.90 Level?

Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support:0.9320, 0.9225, 0.9071
  • Resistance: 0.9474, 0.9599, 0.9723

The US dollar may have formed a bottom against the Swiss franc having produced a bullish Three Inside Up candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 0.9474, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 0.9599. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 0.9320 clears the way for a test of the 14.6% retracement at 0.9225.

While entering long is tempting from a purely technical perspective, we will tactically opt to stand aside. Erratic SNB policy moves since the beginning of the year imply a worrisome degree of outsized volatility risk in having exposure to anything CHF-related. As such, we prefer to stand aside.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: From 1/15/2015

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