USD/CAD – Wobbly Canadian Dollar Falls To 12-Month Low

The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3265, up 0.49% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US construction data was mixed. Building Permits dropped to 1.30 million, shy of the estimate of 1.35 million. This marked a 3-month low. Housing Starts improved to 1.35 million, beating the estimate of 1.31 million. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel at the European Forum in Sintra, Portugal. The US will release Existing Home Sales.

Are we heading for a global trade war? Investors are nervous, and softer risk appetite has weighed on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at its lowest level since June 2017. The most recent round of the trade spat between China and the US started on Friday, when the US announced a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion in Chinese goods. After China responded with an identical move on US imports, President Trump has now threatened to impose 10 percent tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods. Not surprisingly, China has threatened to retaliate to this latest move. Trump has vowed to take action on the $375 billion trade deficit that the US has with China, claiming that the latter is guilty of unfair trade practices. With the first of the US tariffs scheduled to take effect on July 6 and no signs that either side will blink first, the Canadian dollar could be sailing into nasty headwinds.

With US President Trump making good on his threat to slap tariffs on his trading partners, the Canadian government is scrambling to protect the economy. Trump has said the US could impose tariffs of 25 percent on Canadian-built vehicles, which would be disastrous for the Canadian automotive sector, which is worth some C$80 billion to the economy every year. The Trudeau government has promised to help sectors hit with US tariffs, but bailing out the auto industry would cost billions. Canada may have to provide the US with more concessions in the NAFTA negotiations, in order to stave off tariffs against Canadian vehicles, which could have a disastrous effect on economic growth.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (June 19)

  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.35M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.31M

Wednesday (June 20)

  • 8:30 US Current Account. Estimate -129B
  • 9:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks
  • 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.55M

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, June 19, 2018

USD/CAD for June 19, 2018

USD/CAD, June 19 at 9:00 DST

Open: 1.3201 High: 1.3292 Low: 1.3196 Close: 1.3265

USD/CAD Technical

S3S2S1R1R2R31.32081.30671.32081.33141.34611.3530

In the Asian session, USD/CAD edged higher but then retracted. In European trade, the pair recorded slight losses but has recovered

  • 1.3067 is providing support
  • 1.3208 is a weak resistance line. It could break in the North American session
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3208

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2950 and 1.2803
  • Above: 1.3208, 1.3314 and 1.3461

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