USD/CAD – Will Spate Of Job Releases Shake Up Canadian Dollar?

The Canadian dollar has ticked higher in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3375, up 0.11% on the day. The spotlight is on employment numbers on both sides of the border. Nonfarm payrolls is expected in at 172 thousand in March, after a dismal gain of 20 thousand in the previous release. Still, this estimate is significantly lower than the December and January releases, both of which were above the 300-thousand level. Wage growth is projected to gain 0.3%, lower than the 0.4% gain a month ago. In Canada, monthly employment is expected to post a small gain of 3.0 thousand in March, after a huge increase of 55.9 thousand in February. Traders should be prepared for movement from the pair in the North American session.

The Canadian economy has been affected by the trade war between the U.S. and China, especially the manufacturing and export sectors. With talks between the two super-economies continuing, there is optimism that China and the U.S. will reach a deal, and that could boost the Canadian dollar. There were reports this week that an agreement is 90% complete, with the remaining issues including enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs. The optimism over the trade talks has buoyed share prices in China, with the China 50 index rising to its highest level since March 2018 earlier this week.

Is the U.S. economy experiencing a slowdown? Key indicators have pointed lower, raising concerns about the strength of the economy. Retail sales and durable goods orders recorded declines and the trend continued on Wednesday. ADP nonfarm payrolls plunged to 129 thousand, down from 183 thousand in the previous release. If nonfarm payrolls and wage growth are soft, the greenback could lose ground.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (April 5)

  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 172K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%
  • 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 17.2B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, April 5, 2019

USD/CAD, April 5 at 6:10 EST

Open: 1.3360 High: 1.3386 Low: 1.3349 Close: 1.3375

USD/CAD Technical

S3S2S1R1R2R31.31251.32001.32901.33831.34451.3552

USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session and posted small gains in European trade

  • 1.3290 is providing support
  • 1.3383 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125
  • Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662

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