USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Ticks Lower Ahead Of GDP

The Canadian dollar has posted small losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3126, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, Canada’s GDP is expected to slip to a flat 0.0% and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz continues his testimony on Parliament Hill. In the U.S, ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) nonfarm payrolls is expected to drop sharply to 188 thousand. The indicator kicks off a host of employment releases, highlighted by wage growth and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

A black October for the stock markets has badly shaken investor confidence, which has translated into softer demand for minor currencies like the Canadian dollar. The currency has slipped 1.73% in October, despite a Bank of Canada rate hike last week. At the forefront of geopolitical tensions is the trade war between the U.S and its major partners, particularly with China. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies show no signs of easing, and the Trump administration continues to threaten further severe tariffs on China. The U.S has also imposed steel tariffs on its two neighbors, Canada and Mexico. On Monday, Mexico’s deputy commerce minister said that Mexico would not sign the new USMCA pact, which replaces NAFTA, unless the U.S agreed to remove the tariffs against Mexico and Canada. We’ll get a look at Canadian GDP for August on Wednesday, which could be a market-mover. The economy expanded 0.2% in July, and the markets will be hoping for a stronger gain on Wednesday.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Wednesday (October 31)

  • 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 188K
  • 8:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.0%
  • 8:30 Canadian RMPI. Estimate -0.5%
  • 8:30 Canadian IPPI. Estimate 0.0%
  • 8:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.7%
  • 9:45 Chicago PMI. Estimate 60.1
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 3.6M
  • 16:30 Canadian BoC Governor Poloz Speaks

Thursday (November 1)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 213K
  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.0

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, October 31, 2018

USD/CAD, October 31 at 8:10 DST

Open: 1.3111 High: 1.3140 Low: 1.3107 Close: 1.3127

USD/CAD Technical


In the Asian session, USD/CAD edged lower but recovered. in European trade, the pair rose slightly but has given up these gains

  • 1.3067 is providing resistance
  • 1.3198 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3198

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733
  • Above: 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3387

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