Trend Line Analysis: August 3rd, 2015

Last week big news event was the FOMC where markets felt disappointed on no change on the interest rates but stay optimistic on rate hike to give boost to the USD, which prior to the FOMC statement fell hard past 2 days of trading.

While we feel the USD is still within a range and needs to do something special to either break out of the range to the higher side or go for corrective drop, we have ISM and more importantly NFP to come this week which likely to steer some bigger moves on the USD and apparently a break to either direction just might be on the cards. Overall, with rate hikes likely to be seen this year, USD is expected to perform better.

We will look into some setups on pairs for the week and while major USD pairs will be dependent largely on the direction USD will take, their crosses however can be look upon for some decent setups to run.

GBP/CAD

We like to see a test of 2.0480-9X and a hold to enter shorts for an initial move to 2.041X with potential run to 2.0300 handle.

GBP without doubt has been the best performing pair among the major USD pair with GBP/CAD and GBP/AUD hitting newer yearly highs past week. Overall we don’t expect the uptrend on these pairs to be done but rather suspecting some relief drop to negate the Over-Bought conditions before march up resumes.

Hawkish sounding BOE has a large hand on the better performance put in by the GBP as compared to its counter parts, but it seems that GBP is finding difficulties on taking out 1.5700 handle and likely to start corrective drop if it fails to do so Monday – Tuesday. Similarly GBP/CAD is coming on to the prime looking resistance on the charts, suggesting we can see some drops before uptrend resumes.

Hence, going with the 2-hour and the 4-hour chart we finding resistance around 2.0480-9X zone for Monday and it looks decent on trend lines suggesting retraces off this level is highly likely.

GBP/CAD 4-Hour Chart

T2 trend line looks like a good zone to try shorts on a test and a hold there.

GBP/CAD 2-Hour Chart

Same as 4-hour, only extended on resistance.

EUR/AUD

We are interested in trying longs off 491X zone if we get a test to it and a hold for a possible move towards 1.5200 handle.

While EURO is still dealing with it’s demons, particularly in Greece, it’s still able to capture headlines on debt related issues. AUD on the other hand has been hit hard by falling commodity prices along with dovish RBA and rates cuts. Though we don’t expect the RBA to announce rate cuts on Tuesday announcement but nevertheless there still looms possibility of further cuts in near future. RBA last statement suggested course on the interest rate would be data dependent and with slight improvement in the labor market; rate hike are likely to be left unchanged. Chinese Manufacturing PMI is likely to provide some moves on the AUD earlier in the Asia session.

With both pairs in defensive mode, it paves way for some ideal scenario considering swing trades — namely, buying on decent supports and selling on decent resistance.

Hence, 491X comes in as a decent looking support to try longs for a move towards 1.5200 handle on bigger picture.

EUR/AUD 4-Hour Chart

491X looks decent support to try longs for 5050 with potential run to T2/

GBP/JPY

We are using a 2-hour chart and have interest to see a test of T1 trend line and a hold to enter longs for an initial 50-70 pips with a potential for newer highs.

We feel there is plenty of upside to be seen on GBP/JPY and as been suggesting past 2 weeks to use retraces to get in longs till we reach ideally to 196.10-20 zone.

Hence, going forward, we feel 192.8X is a recent breakout trend line and if we can get a retest, it can be a decent swing point to go long considering the level holds out for a test around to 195 handle.

GBP/JPY 2-Hour Chart

Looking to buy a T1 test and a hold for a push higher to newer highs.

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