UK Revised GDP q/q is a second GDP release for the Q1 of 2015 period, and since it is the second release for the same quarter most data have already been made available, it’s less likely to surprise the market, but in the event there is a surprise, we should follow the trade plan below.
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3% DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY GBP 0.7% / SELL GBP 0.1%)
The Trade Plan Since this is the second release of the first quarterly GDP for 2015 (Q1 2015), we´re likely to get plenty of reaction if we get a surprise today, as most second releases do still have the potential of surprising the market. Considering the recent positive trend in the UK economic data, we may get another surprise release today.
However, we´ll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is around 0.3% as we´ll look to possibly SELL GBP at 0.1% or worse, and BUY GBP at 0.7% or better.
Historically, if there is a 80% of chance that our S. Factor hits, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBPUSD.
Outlook ScoreOutlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
DefinitionUK Revised GDP q/q, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…