Trading The NZ Retail Sales Report, November 22, 2017

The NZ Retail Sales release is a quarterly release and since it is scheduled during U.S. afternoon it will be the only high impact release at this time. Considering that it’s the Thanksgiving holiday week in the U.S., the market is going to close shop early and volatilities are going to die down. If we do not get our tradable deviation, stay out of the market and enjoy the holidays.

4:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 2.0% DEVIATION 0.5% (ACTION: NZD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.1%)

The Trade PlanNZ Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We´ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.4% ~ 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 0.9% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD. Our focus will be on the Headline release, not on the Core Release… However both releases shouldn’t conflict, or it will be an automatic no trade

We’ll trade this release using after-release retracement trade method.

I’d recommend using the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZDUSD.

Outlook ScoreOutlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is an opposite.

DEFINITION“NZ Retail Sales Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

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