With the exception of AUD/USD, we saw further steady progress in the right direction – nothing exceptional, but a stage by stage development that is gradually building up the lower fractals to support the larger picture.
Today seems to suggest a slight parting of the ways for USD/JPY compared with the Europeans, but nothing drastic. How this will impact EUR/JPY is a little unclear, although the overall direction of the cross will be determined by EUR/USD that has more propensity for more dramatic moves – even if yesterday didn’t provide that outcome. Indeed, USD/JPY has been a pain in the arse over the past couple of weeks, but does seem to have settled on a slower development that is likely to last for a week or two more, at least. Today, we should expect some two-way movement.
The Europeans all behaved themselves yesterday. More steady progress is expected, although there will come a point where it could accelerate. I don’t think that time has quite come, and more likely, we are going to see the current dollar gains continue in the Continentals in a steady fashion. Probably, we need to see the current sequence follow through, navigate the correction, and then the stronger move can occur.
Finally, the Antipodean… Well, it has certainly made a mess out of the structure – one of those that requires an inventive approach, but also awareness of where breaks will force follow-through or a correction. It’s certainly not the safest of pairs to trade today and more appropriately, it will be best to sit and watch to let the market develop, recognise the outcome, and therefore take advantage of the implied next move.