The most recent drop, which took price action outside of the grey trend channel, counts best as an impulse as we publish this. Wave action is likely to continue to the downside after some countertrend bounce. We remain with the red and black scenarios, which we discussed here during the past few weeks. These two scenarios remain most likely at this stage.
Couldn’t we have just seen an irregular flat, which finished minuette wave (b) instead? Yes, an irregular flat could have played out but it is less likely. The biggest argument against that is the price action in the DXY. The US Dollar index would imply quite a stretch in the b-wave for the irregular flat pattern. All in all, not impossible but less likely.
The EUR/USD remains probably in a downside trend as long as the 1.1715-1.1730 area holds on the next countertrend bounce.