Friday’s nonfarm payrolls showed a solid pace of job creation with the U.S. economy seen adding 313k jobs which beat estimates by a strong margin. However, the U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% which missed estimates of a decline to 4.0%. Although the jobs report was solid, the slow pace of wage creation saw average earnings rising just 0.1% on the month.
The U.S. dollar was seen weakening into Friday’s close as a result. Elsewhere, Canada’s jobs report showed that the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.8% while the economy was seen adding 15.4k jobs which were below estimates of a 21.3k job growth that was estimated.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today is light with no major releases expected. The currency markets are expected to follow through from Friday’s price action.
EUR/USD intra-day analysis
EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart
EUR/USD (1.2320):The EUR/USD closed with a doji on Friday following Thursday’s strong losses. With price action closing back below the price level of 1.2363 – 1.2333 level, we expect EUR/USD to continue to push lower as a result. The downside target comes in at the previously established low of 1.2179, followed by a move towards 1.2090 – 1.2070 which could be tested as the markets head closer to next week’s FOMC meeting. To the upside, a breakout above 1.2333 could signal near term gains but the upside bias seems to be easing.
GBP/USD intra-day analysis
GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart
GBP/USD (1.3856):The British pound was seen closing with gains on Friday but price action was seen trading below the 1.3902 level which is acting as support. Failure to breakout above this level on the daily basis could keep GBP/USD biased to the downside. The retest of support level near 1.3611 – 1.3590 is expected but this could change in the event of a close above 1.3902 which could see GBP/USD pushing higher to test 1.4060 level.
XAU/USD intra-day analysis
XAU/USD 4 Hour Chart
XAU/USD (1323.28): Gold prices continue to drift close to the 1328 level, with Friday’s price action seeing the precious metal erasing the intraday losses. We expect this consolidation around 1328 to continue in the near term but the bias remains to the downside for a re-test of 1303 level of support. Gold prices are likely to maintain the range within these levels with further gains or losses coming only on a breakout from either of these levels.