NZD/JPY Outlook Negative

NZD/JPY fell sharply today, after it hit resistance at the downside line taken from the peak of Sept. 14, breaking below yesterday’s low, which is at around the 77.00 territories.

Now, it is headed towards 76.35, which has been a support since Aug. 27. With all that in mind, we will consider the near-term outlook to be somewhat negative.

That said, to get confident on more significant declines, we would like to see a clear break below the 76.35 barriers. This will confirm a forthcoming lower low on the daily chart and may initially pave the way towards the inside swing high of Aug. 23, at 75.74.

If the price breaches that level, a stretch towards the 75.15 territories is probable. That level acted as resistance by the inside swing high of Aug. 20.

The RSI lies below 50 and points down, while the MACD, although slightly positive, runs below its trigger line, pointing south as well. The RSI is already detecting downside speed, while the MACD is about to do so very soon.

In our view, all this enhances the case for some further declines. But as we already noted, we will be more confident in case of a break below 76.35.

We will only start examining the bullish case if we see a clear break back above 78.15, a hurdle that provided strong resistance on Sept. 24 and 28.

The rate will already be above the pre-mentioned downside line taken from the high of Sept. 14 and may climb towards 78.65, which acted as a ceiling between September 3rd and 14th.

If the bulls manage to overcome that barrier this time around, we could see them aiming for the high of June 7, at around 79.13.

NZD/JPY 4-hour chart technical analysis.

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