This week the scorecard recommends buying EUR, CAD and SEK, while selling GBP, USD and NOK.Last week’s signals resulted in a 1.7%% loss. Especially the long EUR and CHF positions were expensive.Year-to-date the scorecard model has generated a total loss of 10.6%.Due to the mean reverting adjustment in the FX score, a strong trend in a currency without significant changes in any of the other financial input factors is usually bad for the model. This is exactly what happened in 2013 when the model lost around 3.5% on its JPY positions when USD/JPY rose sharply. The EUR weakness generated in the wake of the ECB’s QE announcement is the main explanation behind the scorecard’s weak performance so far this year. Since 12 January 2015 the model has lost 3.1% and 2.9% on its EUR and CHF positions respectively.Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 20 April.
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