UK And EU Seek An Agreement On Brexit Terms
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held a series of meetings with world leaders on the conditions for his country's exit from the European Union. Will GBP/CHF quotations grow?
Their upward movement means the strengthening of the British pound and the weakening of the Swiss franc. The UK exit from the EU should take place on October 31, 2019. If, until this time, the parties do not conclude an agreement on the settlement of mutual obligations, which could have a negative impact on the British economy and the pound. The other day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the possibility of reaching an agreement with Britain until October 31 about Northern Ireland, which could remain a member of the EU Customs Union. The reaction of the foreign-exchange market was very positive. The progress of negotiations on Brexit could increase pound quotes. Until the end of August, particularly important macroeconomic data in the UK is not expected. In turn, the Swiss franc is considered a safe-haven currency. It is weakening in the event of a decrease in global risks amid a trade war between the United States and China. Such risks really decreased after the United States postponed the date of increasing duties on imports of Chinese goods from September 1 of this year to December 15. At the same time, the parties will continue trade negotiations.
On the daily timeframe the GBP/CHF exited the downtrend and is trying to adjust up.Various technical analysis indicators have generated signals to increase. Further growth of quotations is possible in the event of the conclusion of an agreement on Brexit and progress in trade negotiations between the US and China.
- The Parabolic indicator shows a signal to increase.
- The Bollinger® bands widened, indicating a volatility increase. Both Bollinger lines slope up.
The bullish momentum may develop if GBP/CHF exceeds the 1st Fibonacci line and its last maximum: 1.207. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop lose may be placed lower than the last lower fractal, the minimum since October 2016 and the Parabolic signal: 1.167. After opening the pending order, the stop shall be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (1,167) without reaching the order (1,207), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.
Technical Analysis Summary
Buy stop Above 1,207
Stop loss Below 1,167