EUR/USD Prepares Breakout With 1.2440 Target, Eyes On U.S. Data

EUR/USD is still trading within yesterday range and has added only 5-pips on Wednesday’s Asian trading session after clocking 1.2411 high.

Technically, price remains in an ascending daily and H4 time frame. At the moment, EUR/USD is trading 1.2407 with a close above 1.1410-15 at H4 will force EUR bulls to challenge 1.12440-50 as first target. As for intraday price action behavior, we see further upside action as hours to come. On the other hand, the DXY broke the descending H4 which supports EUR/USD bulls. As for corrections, price should find rebounds at 1.2370-50 (daily -EMA + Fib 50).

Fundamentally, eyes will be focused first on Draghi speech shortly, and on NY opening session Retail Sales with expectations for 0.3% compared to -.03% in February which confirms that the U.S. economy is overheating. Also, Producer Price Index will be released on the same time, but consensus reads a 0.1% print compared to 0.4% previously. Any readings above 0.1% for PPI will be considered hawkish for the U.S. Index which is still wallowing after yesterday’s shocking Tillerson resignation. We are looking forward on how market will trade EUR/USD between Draghi’s comments and U.S. data release and all scenarios are opened.

EUR/USD H4 Chart

  • EUR/USD daily technical summary:
  • Closing price: 1.2391
  • Target price: None at the moment
  • Resistance: 1.2470 , 1.2500
  • Support: 1.2360 , 1.2310 , 1.2275*
  • Trend: Sideways/Up / Daily
  • Trend reversal price: 1.2275* / daily close
  • Comment: The market holds a short term bull trend bias with recent dips bouncing off 1.2275* support to reconfirm a bull trend posture. A breakout over last week’s swing high will launch a drive back over 12600+ to test previous highs. A close under 1.2275* signals a short term turnover and opens up potential selloffs to 12200-.
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