Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And USD/CHF : September 04,2018

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.90; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.25; Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. While deeper pull cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. Price actions from 113.17 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Break of 111.82 will reaffirm the case that such correction has completed at 109.76. And in that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 113.17 high.


In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9681; (P) 0.9695; (R1) 0.9706;

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation from 0.9651 temporary low. Stronger recovery might be seen. But upside should be limited by 0.9775 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.9651 will extend the fall from 1.0067 and target 200% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.8579 next.


In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.


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