Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And EUR/CHF : August 31,2018

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.53; (R1) 111.98; USD/JPY’s breach of 110.93 minor support argues that the rebound from 109.76 might be finished. It also dampened out bullish view. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 109.76 support. For now, we’d still expect 109.36/76 key support to hold and bring rebound. But decisive there will carry larger bearish implications. on the upside, above 111.82 will revive the bullish case and target a retest on 113.17 high.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1284; (P) 1.1328; (R1) 1.1353;

EUR/CHF’s fall from 1.1452 continues today and reaches as low as 1.1269 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.1242 low first. Break will bring a test on key support zone at 1.1154/98. On the upside, above 1.1343 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. In that case, more range trading would likely be seen above 1.1242 in the near term.


In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1189) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.


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