Daily Currency Outlook: USD/JPY And AUD/USD : November 01,2018

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 113.05; (R1) 113.31;

A temporary top is in place at 113.38 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected with 112.56 minor support intact. Above 113.38 will extend the rebound from 111.37 to 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.56 will possibly extend the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 before completion.


In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.


AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7057; (P) 0.7083; (R1) 0.7097;

AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7020 extends further today but it’s kept below 0.7159 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment with near term outlook staying bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7020 extend the down trend from 0.8135 towards 0.6826 low. However, firm break of 0.7159 will be a first sign of trend reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, and turn bias back to the upside for 0.7314 resistance.


In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound.


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