Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And USD/JPY : November 13,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0071; (P) 1.0091; (R1) 1.0130;

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.9541 is resuming whole rally from 0.9861. Next target is 1.0342 key resistance. On the downside, break of 0.9952 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 0.9952 support holds.


In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, firm break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.60; (P) 113.90; (R1) 114.15;

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY for 114.54/73 resistance zone. But upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in 4 hour MACD. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from 114.54/73 to limit upside and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54 with another falling leg back to 111.37. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.


In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.


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