Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : October 12,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9860; (P) 0.9892; (R1) 0.9927;

No change in USD/CHF’s outlook. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside a pull back from 0.9954 could extend lower. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 0.9954 at 0.9796 to bring rebound, and then rise resumption. On the upside, break of 0.9954 will resume the rally from 0.90541 and target 1.0067 resistance next.


In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3195; (P) 1.3222; (R1) 1.3261;

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2921 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.3297 resistance. At this point, we’d still expect upside to be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.3132 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2921 first. However, sustained break of 1.3316 would pave the way to next fibonacci level at 1.3721.


In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.


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