Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And GBP/USD : July 31,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9854; (P) 0.9906; (R1) 0.9934;

The break of 0.9900 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.0067. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 0.9856 support first. Break will target 0.9787 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in consolidation from 1.0056 with fall from 1.0067 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9977 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, near term outlook is mildly bearish in case of recovery.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we’d expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3102; (P) 1.3128; (R1) 1.3158;

GBP/USD is still bounded in tight range of 1.3070/3212 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.3070 minor support will suggest completion of rebound form 1.2956 and turns bias back to the downside for this low. Firm break there will resume larger decline from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3212 will bring further recovery. But still, price action from 1.2956 are a corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 1.3362 resistance to bring larger decline resumption eventually.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. Decisive break of 1.2874 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 1.1946 low. On the upside, break of 1.3362 resistance is needed to be the first indication of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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