Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CHF And EUR/USD : May 21,2018

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9943; (P) 0.9983; (R1) 1.0015;

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again with today’s recovery. Overall, price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But we’d expect strong support from trend line (now at 0.9799) to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.0056 will confirm rise resumption for 1.0342 key resistance.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1739; (P) 1.1782 (R1) 1.1814;

EUR/USD’s fall extends to as low as 1.1721 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level first. Decisive break there will target 50% retracement at 1.1447 next. On the upside, touching 1.1821 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2113) holds.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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