Daily Currency Outlook: USD/CAD And EUR/CHF : October 17,2018

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2899; (P) 1.2949; (R1) 1.2984;

USD/CAD breached 1.2926 as fall from 1.3070 extends but it recovers quickly. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.2926 will turn bias to the downside for 1.2781 instead. That would also argue that fall from 1.3385 is still in progress for another low. On the upside, break of 1.3081 resistance will be the first sign of completion of whole choppy fall from 1.3385. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.3225 resistance for confirmation.


In the bigger picture, corrective rebound from 1.2061 could have completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. For now, we’re not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we’ll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 . On the upside, though, break of 1.3081 resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.3385 is completed and rise from 1.2061 is resuming for another high above 1.3385.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1435; (P) 1.1457; (R1) 1.1487;

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.1491 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. We’re holding on to the view on bullish trend reversal after EUR/CHF drew support from 1.1154/98 zone. On the upside above 1.1491 will target 1.1713 resistance for confirmation. Break there will target a test on 1.2004 high next. Meanwhile, note that upside momentum is not to convincing so far. Break of 1.1368 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 zone again.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.


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