Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/USD And USD/CHF : March 15,2018

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3926; (P) 1.3961; (R1) 1.3996;

GBP/USD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 1.3873 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.4144 resistance. As noted before, corrective pull back from 1.4345 could have completed at 1.3711 already. Break of 1.4144 should confirm this bullish case and target 1.4345 high and above. On the downside, below 1.3873 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the corrective fall from 1.4345 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9421; (P) 0.9451; (R1) 0.9477;

USD/CHF is still bounded in range of 0.9356/9533 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Still, further rise is in favor as long as 0.9356 support holds. Break of 0.9533 will resume the rebound from 0.9186 and target 0.9626 fibonacci level. However, on the downside, break of 0.9356 will indicate that the rebound has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9186 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

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