Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/USD And USD/CAD: December 26, 2018

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1366; (P) 1.1395; (R1) 1.1425;

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1270/1485 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1485 resistance will revive the case of near term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1621 resistance first. Break will target 1.1814 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1270 will, instead, revive the bearish case that down trend from 1.2555 is still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1186 key fibonacci level.


In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.


USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3403; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3959;

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should target 1.3685 fibonacci level next. Break there will target 1.3793 key medium term resistance. On the downside, below 1.3511 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But downside should be contained above 1.3322 support to bring another rally.


In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. At this point, the structure is not clearly impulsive yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping between 1.3685/3793. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2991) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).


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