Daily Currency Outlook: EUR/USD And EUR/CHF : October 04,2018

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1430; (P) 1.1513; (R1) 1.1562;

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1814 resumed after brief consolidation and hits as low as 1.1463 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1300 low next. On the upside, break of 1.1593 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.


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In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1390; (R1) 1.1422;

Outlook in EUR/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1452 resistance should confirm bullish reversal, after drawing strong support from 1.1154/98 zone. In that case, outlook will be turned bullish for 1.1713 resistance next. However, break of 1.1280 will argue that choppy recovery from 1.1178 has completed and bring retest of 1.1154/98 support zone again.


In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.


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