Daily Currency Outlook: AUD/USD And USD/JPY : December 17,2018

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7141; (P) 0.7185; (R1) 0.7220;

Intraday bias in AUD?USD remains on the downside at this point. The corrective rebound from 0.7020 should have completed at 0.7393 already. Deeper fall should be seen back to retest 0.7020 low first. On the upside, break of 0.7246 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias back to the upside. Rebound from 0.7020 could probably head to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 before completion.


In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.7020 ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Stronger rebound could still be seen to correct the whole fall from 0.8135 high. But we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should resume later and extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage, after the correction from 0.7020 completes.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.17; (P) 113.42; (R1) 113.64;

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. However, break of 112.23 support will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with another decline. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.


In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.


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