Currency Speculators Sharply Reduced Us Dollar Bullish Bets Last Week

USD net speculator positions fall to lowest level in four months, Swiss franc turns bullish

USD Non-Commercial’s Weekly Net $ Amount

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut their net bullish positions for the US dollar last week to the lowest level since December.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $38.59 billion as of Tuesday March 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$5.72 billion from the $44.31 billion total long position that was registered on March 10th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data brings the US dollar speculative level to its lowest standing since December 16th 2014 when the total bullish position was $34.64 billion and breaks a string of eleven straight weeks of the dollar bullish position above $40 billion.

The Swiss franc broke through and became the first currency in many months to have a bullish speculator position against the dollar with a slightly bullish position of +2,235 contracts.

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

Weekly USD Non-Commercial Net Contracts

In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts dropped last week to a total of +396,153 contracts as of Tuesday March 17th. This was a weekly change of -39,286 contracts from the total of +435,439 contracts as of Tuesday March 10th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each inpidual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels and Changes: Swiss franc turns slightly bullish vs USD

Weekly Net Non-Commercial Futures Contracts Vs. USD

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar on the week while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Changes:

  • The euro continued its decline as bearish euro positions almost hit the -195,000 mark last week
  • Swiss franc positions turned bullish for the first time since June 2014
  • Australian dollar positions jumped sharply and went from -76,851 positions to -28,807 positions for a weekly increase of +48,044 contracts

This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 17th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the inpidual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

Euro FX:

Euro Chart

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/201544413947217241858-194641166802/17/201543841147175232757-185582905902/24/201543121745511223247-177736784603/03/201544073348467220856-172389534703/10/201549646561271242344-181073-868403/17/201544950856329250103-193774-12701

British Pound Sterling:

GBP Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/20151759663679875401-38603379502/17/20151706274299971797-28798980502/24/20151697844674168611-21870692803/03/20151657374456371471-26908-503803/10/20152051664805380644-32591-568303/17/20151882384715585006-37851-5260

Japanese Yen:

JPY Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/20152041932588481008-55124444702/17/20152035553126980360-49091603302/24/20152024383161179123-47512157903/03/20152106113394486465-52521-500903/10/20152350893289892285-59387-686603/17/20151959134449692550-4805411333

Swiss Franc:

CHF Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/201534459577111257-5486-13602/17/201534204474010784-6044-55802/24/201534765522810313-508595903/03/201540861702713089-6062-97703/10/201552384721715597-8380-231803/17/2015388891812915894223510615

Canadian Dollar:

CAD Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/20151157442117654509-33333-601202/17/20151116141999852840-3284249102/24/20151180142242358668-36245-340303/03/20151213442433263195-38863-261803/10/20151466392201161041-39030-16703/17/20151585762100153823-328226208

Australian Dollar:

AUD Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/20151253591251765699-53182297702/17/20151317221723071061-53831-64902/24/20151398051559778751-63154-932303/03/20151368411365275197-61545160903/10/20151965341513791988-76851-1530603/17/20151527466304691853-2880748044

New Zealand Dolalr:

NZD Chart

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/201526593927215472-6200-170302/17/2015277001002115774-575344702/24/2015273281110715437-4330142303/03/2015276101459715964-1367296303/10/2015297261334715827-2480-111303/17/2015233171311714258-11411339

Mexican Peso:

MXN Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change02/10/20151748612569174926-49235-99802/17/20151757042887374318-45445379002/24/20151805063410582449-48344-289903/03/20151780573141474821-43407493703/10/20151850393062266269-35647776003/17/20151351442370279641-55939-20292

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

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