AUD/USD: In Established Range

AUD/USD for Friday, April 24, 2015

To start this new week the Australian dollar fell sharply but landed on the previous key level at 0.77, which has offered considerable support since that time. A couple of days ago it surged higher to move back above 0.78 for a short period before easing back lower again with eyes on support at 0.77. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid week last week moving off support around 0.76 to reach a three week high just shy of the resistance level at 0.7850. In doing so, it moved through the key resistance level at 0.77. After placing great pressure on the resistance level at 0.77 a couple of weeks ago, the Australian dollar fell heavily earlier last week before surging higher again to finish out the week. Over the best part of the last few weeks, the Australian dollar has relied heavily on support at the 0.76 level after falling away sharply to down below the key 0.77 level over the course of the week prior, and it is relying on this level again presently. Throughout the last couple of weeks it felt significant resistance from the key 0.77 level which has been severely tested during this period and it will be interesting to see whether this level now acts as some support.

Its next obvious support level is down at 0.7550 and it will hoping to be propped up by it. For a couple of weeks it moved back and forth from below 0.76 and up to the key resistance level at 0.7850 and higher, before the recent fall. Back in early March the Australian dollar made a statement and broke down strongly through the key 0.77 level which then provided significant resistance for the following few days. It was also able to enjoy some short term support around 0.7550, which propped it up and allowed it to rally strongly back up to above 0.79. Throughout February the Australian dollar made repeated attempts to move up strongly to the resistance level at 0.7850 however it was rejected every time and sent back easing lower, which is why this level remains significant presently. Just prior to that towards the end of February the Australian dollar moved through the resistance at 0.7850 to reach a new four week high around 0.7900. In the second half of January, the Australian dollar fell very sharply and break lower from the trading range that had been established roughly between 0.8050 and 0.8200.

Back in mid-January it made numerous attempts at the resistance level at 0.82 only to be sent back often before finally finishing that week moving through this key level. In doing so it was able to reach a one month high near 0.83 before being sold back down again towards 0.82 as the resistance and selling activity above this level kicked in. Over the Christmas / New Year period, the Australian dollar seemed to have been content with trading in a narrow range below the resistance at 0.82, which continues to remain a key level as it is presently provides resistance. The Australian dollar experienced a disappointing November and December moving from resistance around 0.88 down to the new lows recently. For a couple of months from September through to November, the Australian dollar did well to stop the bleeding and trade within a range between 0.8650 and 0.88 after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650.

Australia’s core consumer prices matched economists’ forecasts in the first three months of the year, providing scope for the central bank to reduce interest rates. The trimmed mean gauge of core prices advanced 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney Wednesday, in line with the median forecast. The consumer price index rose 0.2 percent from the prior period, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 0.1 percent increase. “Australia’s CPI figures aren’t as weak as we expected, but they are unlikely to prompt the RBA to abandon its plans to cut interest rates in early May,” said Paul Dales, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics. “It seems that the boost to inflation from the lower exchange rate is offsetting the drag from weak wage growth and the indirect effects from lower petrol and utility prices.”

AUD Daily: 4-Hour


AUD/USD April 24 at 00:45 GMT 0.7772 H: 0.7782 L: 0.7771

AUD/USD Technicals


During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the AUD/USD is trading in a narrow range just under 0.78. Current range: trading right above 0.7700.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7700, 0.7600 and 0.7550.

• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8200.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios


(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for the AUD/USD has moved back below 50% as the Australian dollar has eased back to the support level at 0.77. The trader sentiment is in favour of short positions.

Economic Releases

  • 04:30 JP All Industry activity index (Feb)
  • 12:30 US Durable goods (Mar)
  • EU Euro-Area FinMin’s and Central Bankers meet in Riga (to 25th)

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