AUD: No Help Within Reach

The Aussie is on the back foot again. The currency refreshed 6-month lows against the buck at 0.7517.

This time the reason for the sale-off was the disappointing trade balance data, which showed a sharp drop to the 6-months lows. At the same time exports decreased by 3%, mainly due to a drop in sales in the mining and metallurgical sectors, while imports grew by 2%. Net exports are used to calculate a country’s GDP, so it is unlikely that the indicator for the fourth quarter will bring any good. Currently, considering the fundamental data, the Aussie’s decline is more justified than its growth.

The trading conditions in Australia are at their best levels in the last 20 years, and this is a good opportunity for the companies to make money. But, there is one catch: concerns over Australia’s record household debt and slow rate of wages’ growth. The retail sales have not been very active since the mid-year, which is a reason for concern since the consumer spending accounts for about 60% of Australian GDP.

The experts expect a slower pace of growth next year because Australia does not catch up with the global growth rate. So, the rates will remain at low levels until 2019, at least. On Tuesday, the RBA kept status-quo, having left the key rates on hold, and suggested it has no plans of hiking in the near future.

AUD broke the key support area at 0.7540-30. If the pair closes below 0.7520 support and chews June, 21-22 lows, it may test the 0.7420 area.

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