Apart From GBP/USD, We Should Have Seen The Dollar Lows

Across the pairs, we have had a range of reactions. For the most part in the 4 majors we have seen USD/JPY, USD/CHF and most likely EUR/USD, completed the Dollar lows. I’m still a little wary of a new high but it’s basically going to see losses. Therefore, we have only GBP/USD that needs a minor push higher before it turns back lower. What has been quite interesting is the range of development through the three markets. USD/CHF has seen quite a solid rally while USD/JPY has only managed a mini-minor initial push higher from the 111.83 low. Equally, EUR/USD should have seen its high but I’d suggest allowing for a minor new high.

Once we get past the EUR/USD / GBP/USD highs we should begin to see a decent reversal lower. Of course, we’re going to need to work through the initial (Dollar) bullish foundation waves before any real solid gains.

The Aussie should still see a follow-through higher to complete the bullish zigzag. Once that has been seen then we’ll have a quorum in terms of Dollar direction.

On a note in EUR/JPY, the recent lows have been rather rough in terms of ratios – or lack of good ratios. I’m rather wary about this but frankly, we should be seeing a consolidation – of sorts – with USD/JPY expected to push higher and EUR/USD lower. I’d still suggest waiting to break out of this rather difficult structure.

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